Nigeria’s Gulf war inflation shock exposes fragile recovery and looming stagflation fears

• Nigeria’s private sector contracts after 16 months of expansion
• Rising fuel costs threaten growth, jobs, and investor confidence

LAGOS, NIGERIA — Nigeria’s economic recovery stumbled in April as surging fuel costs and Middle East tensions pushed private sector activity into contraction for the first time in 16 months.

The West African giant’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key gauge of business activity compiled by the Central Bank of Nigeria, fell sharply to 49.4 in April from 53.2 in March, slipping below the critical 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.