- Malawi’s election result inspires Kenya’s opposition
- Analysts warn Ruto faces rising political backlash
NAIROBI, KENYA – The electoral comeback of Malawi’s former President Peter Mutharika is shaping Kenya’s 2027 presidential race, where opposition forces are rallying to end President William Ruto’s rule after one term.
Mutharika, who previously served from 2014 to 2020, won Malawi’s September 16 presidential election with 56.8% of the vote, defeating outgoing leader Lazarus Chakwera, who secured just 33%, according to the Malawi Electoral Commission.
His victory has reverberated far beyond Lilongwe. In Kenya, opposition leaders are citing Chakwera’s failure to secure a second term as evidence that Ruto could also be toppled in 2027.
Malawi lessons for Kenya
Chakwera swept to power in 2020 vowing to clean up corruption and restore the rule of law after what he called Mutharika’s “misgovernance.” But his government was accused of reneging on those promises, leaving voters disillusioned.
Kenya’s opposition is drawing parallels with Ruto, who won the 2022 election on his “hustler” narrative, pledging to uplift ordinary citizens. Three years later, he faces widespread criticism for not delivering.
In October 2024, Ruto fell out with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, engineering his impeachment over corruption, tribalism and insubordination. Gachagua has since allied with opposition figures, spearheading a campaign branding Ruto a one-term president.
They accuse the Kenyan leader of presiding over a corrupt regime, failing to curb soaring living costs, and mismanaging health and education.
Analysts weigh in
While comparisons between Nairobi and Lilongwe are tempting, experts caution that Kenya’s political dynamics are distinct.
“President Ruto is a shrewd politician who has never lost an election since the onset of his political career in the 1990s,” Ojera Wasonga, a political analyst, told Allen Dreyfus. “In 2022, he beat a state-backed presidential candidate. Therefore, he cannot be ignored.”
Wasonga warned, however, that Ruto’s position has weakened.
“Under the current political climate, Ruto’s popularity has sharply declined due to the teething problems facing the country. If the opposition fully unites and rallies behind a single candidate, a Malawi result can equally happen in Kenya,” he said.
Prof Njoki Wamae, another political analyst, agreed that incumbents are increasingly vulnerable. “There is a political wave blowing across Africa where incumbent leaders are losing elections to the opposition. Kenya is not immune to it,” she said.
Christianity and credibility
Both Chakwera and Ruto presented themselves as devout Christians when seeking power. In Malawi, that moral appeal faded quickly. In Kenya, critics say Ruto risks following the same path if economic hardship continues to erode his support base.
With two years to go before Kenya votes, the question is whether opposition unity – combined with discontent over unfulfilled promises – can turn Ruto into another African one-term president.
