- Opposition leader Cheikh Thiam defies court order barring him from October vote
- Political tensions raise fears of renewed violence, threatening investment climate
ABIDJAN, IVORY COAST – Ivory Coast’s main opposition leader has refused to comply with a court ruling barring him from running in the country’s presidential election, escalating political tensions in the world’s top cocoa producer.
The election is due on October 25.
A court in Abidjan declared Cheikh Tidjane Thiam, 63, ineligible on the grounds of his past French citizenship, even though he has since renounced it. His decision to spurn the ruling is seen as an attempt to pressure authorities to reverse course, but analysts warn it risks igniting street unrest.
Risk of unrest and business slowdown
The disqualification has already stirred unease among businesses, with employers warning that a repeat of Ivory Coast’s 2010-2011 post-election crisis – which killed 3,000 people – could deal another blow to the economy.
“Tension remains very high with exactly two months to the election. While the authorities are trying to calm fears, saying the vote will be free, fair and peaceful, the opposition is calling for barred candidates to be reinstated,” said Mamadou Bamba, vice president of the Ivorian Employers’ Association (CGECI).
“Nobody knows what will happen from now until then. The opposition’s street protest earlier this month was gigantic, pushing further the possibility of violence close to election day. We have been through this before,” Bamba told Allen Dreyfus.
“At times like this, business and investment slow up. Some businesses even shut down by precaution. And that is what we are unfortunately observing for some time now.
“It could even get worse as the event draws closer. Nobody wants to relive the experience of 2010-2011. Beside the casualties and atrocities, many businesses and investments collapsed and never recovered,” Bamba added.
Ouattara seeks fourth term
The dispute comes as President Alassane Ouattara, 83, prepares to run for a fourth term. He has governed since 2011 across three terms of office and argues that a 2013 constitutional revision allows him to extend his stay in power despite a two-term limit.
Ouattara is expected to submit his candidacy on Tuesday, the final deadline for applications. More than 30 contenders have already filed, including Simone Gbagbo, the ex-wife of former president Laurent Gbagbo, 80. Both Gbagbo and Thiam have been barred from running.
At a rally in Abidjan last week, Gbagbo urged supporters to resist any attempt by Ouattara to cling to power. His disqualification further consolidates Ouattara’s status as the frontrunner.
“People will definitely hold back their money and wait until October to see if the vote takes place peacefully. And from our experience of previous situations, this could affect almost every sector,” Bamba said.
Analysts warn that any outbreak of unrest in the world’s largest cocoa supplier could disrupt supply chains and unsettle West Africa’s largest French-speaking economy, just as investors are betting on its fast-growing consumer market and infrastructure drive.
