- Farmers warn yields may drop by up to 30%
- Analysts fear setback to Nigeria’s export diversification push
LAGOS, NIGERIA – Nigeria’s cocoa output may plunge by as much as a third this season after late rainfall disrupted crop cycles, threatening Africa’s biggest economy’s drive to diversify exports away from oil.
Harvesting for the main crop season begins this month, but producers from both western and eastern cocoa belts warned that yields will be sharply lower despite good quality beans.
“The quality will be good, but the output will be low. Instead of three pods on a tree we may have two,” said Omobola Japhet, a farmer in Idanre, the top-producing local government area in Ondo State, Nigeria’s cocoa heartland.
“Rain was supposed to fall in May and June, it did not fall. It is only this month September that rain started,” Japhet told Allen Dreyfus.
Farmers brace for losses
In the southeast, growers echoed similar concerns. “Output will not meet up last year. We did not have enough rain because rain did not fall when it was supposed to fall,” said Samuel Onyenweaku, a farmer in Amuzuoro, Abia State. He added that late rainfall delayed spraying against pod disease, further threatening yields.
Nigeria’s two cocoa harvests account for most of its agricultural exports. The main crop, which runs from October to January, represents about 70% of total output, while a smaller “light crop” follows from April to June.
A sharp drop in production would put pressure on Abuja’s plans to raise output to 500,000 tonnes in the 2024/25 season. Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, aims to climb to fourth place behind Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Indonesia.
The country produced 284,232 tonnes of cocoa in 2023, according to World Population Review, while the International Cocoa Organisation put the 2022/23 figure at 315,000 tonnes with a forecast of 350,000 tonnes for 2023/24.
Export diversification under threat
Analysts warn that a 30% shortfall could blunt efforts to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on oil. “A potential 30.0% drop in cocoa output poses a serious headwind for Nigeria’s agriculture sector and the country’s broader push to diversify exports away from oil,” said Segun Adams, research associate at Lagos-based Afrinvest West Africa.
Nigeria’s cocoa and derivatives accounted for more than half of its agricultural exports in the first half of 2025, earning ₦1.9 trillion ($1.29 billion), data from the National Bureau of Statistics show. That pace was 45% higher than full-year 2024 levels, but momentum is already fading as second-quarter exports dropped to ₦590.1 billion ($400m) from ₦1.3 trillion ($880m) in the first quarter, Adams noted.
“Agriculture’s share of total exports steadily climbed from 2.6% in 2020 to 5.7% in 2024, but a poor cocoa harvest could derail diversification gains, slow crop GDP growth and deepen vulnerabilities for smallholder farmers, who by some estimates represent 76.0% of producers,” Adams added.
Nigeria’s exports of cocoa and its derivatives had jumped to ₦1.2 trillion ($780 million) in the fourth quarter of 2024 from ₦171 billion ($110 million) a year earlier, underscoring the sector’s growing importance.
But with rains arriving months late this year, farmers now face the prospect of sharply reduced harvests just as Abuja leans on agriculture to lift foreign exchange earnings.
