- Services sector drives GDP surge, agriculture follows with strong export gains
- Moody’s upgrades outlook to stable, easing debt repayment risks
KIGALI, RWANDA – Rwanda’s economy expanded by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2025, accelerating from 6.5% in the first quarter, the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda said.
The growth comes after the rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 2024 constant prices, up from 2017, offering what officials described as a more accurate picture of the economy.
The services sector accounted for half of the output, while agriculture contributed 23%. Food crop production rose 3% and export crops surged 42%, driven by a 121% spike in coffee output and favourable global prices.
“With the change in the levels of GDP, it means that the computation of growth have also been adjusted and from the growth target of 8.9% that was earlier projected … these changes it has been revised to 7.2%,” said Ivan Murenzi, director general of the statistics institute.
Credit boost from Moody’s
The upbeat data comes as Rwanda secured a credit rating outlook upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service, which shifted the country’s risk profile from negative to stable. The rating agency maintained Rwanda’s position at B2 for both local and foreign currency.
Moody’s said the change reflected “diminishing risks” tied to regional instability, particularly conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, which had clouded Rwanda’s ability to secure foreign currency and international financing.
“With this upgrade it means Rwanda’s risks to the debt repayment has significantly declined,” the statistics institute said in its note, while pointing to the positive implications for investor sentiment.
Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa called the move an endorsement of Rwanda’s fiscal policies.
“This is an indication that Rwanda provides a good environment that will attract international investors to the country, and the country is capable of managing risks,” he said.
The rebased GDP figures show Rwanda’s 2024 economy was larger than previously estimated, revised upward to $13.72 billion from $12.95 billion. The government has also introduced tax reforms in 2025, projected to boost revenue by three percentage points of GDP by 2029, lifting total tax receipts to nearly 18% of GDP.
Rwanda says prudent reforms, foreign investor confidence and better infrastructure management will sustain growth momentum despite regional instability.
