- Ouattara raises record cocoa price weeks before elections
- Ghana follows with sharp hike to align with Ivorian move
ABIDJAN, IVORY COAST – Ivory Coast has set a record farm-gate price of 2,800 CFA francs ($5) per kilogram for the 2025–26 main cocoa crop weeks before a high-stakes presidential vote.
The increase marks the sharpest rise in two decades, lifting guaranteed farmer pay by 67% in just two years. It comes as the world’s top cocoa producer, responsible for 40% of global supply, grapples with a 25% drop in output from El Niño and swollen shoot disease.
Cocoa is the backbone of Ivory Coast’s $80 billion economy, contributing up to 20% of GDP and supporting six million livelihoods. Exports account for about 80% of foreign-currency earnings.
Announcing the new price, President Alassane Ouattara said raising the farm-gate share of export prices to 68% will help “stabilise rural incomes and curb smuggling to Ghana.”
IMF boost but risks remain
The International Monetary Fund reported in June that soaring cocoa prices helped narrow Ivory Coast’s current-account deficit to 4.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 8.2% a year earlier. Regional reserves at the BCEAO central bank now cover five months of imports, and tax revenues from the cocoa windfall are expected to add 0.6% of GDP in 2025.
Growth is forecast at 6.3% this year, supported by agriculture, oil and mining, while inflation is expected to ease to 3% within the West African Monetary Union target band. But public debt stands near 59% of GDP, and the IMF warned that overreliance on cocoa leaves the country vulnerable to climate and price shocks. Diversification into hydrocarbons, gold and processing is seen as urgent.
Political tensions are adding to uncertainty. Several opposition leaders have been barred from the October ballot, and the IMF has cautioned that election risks could dampen investor confidence. Ouattara’s cocoa price hike, analysts say, is both an economic cushion and a signal to rural voters in the cocoa belt, a decisive electoral bloc.
Global volatility and regional competition
Cocoa futures surged to record highs above $9,000 a ton in early 2025 before correcting to about $6,700 in October. Analysts warn that price swings could undermine the gains from higher farm-gate rates.
Neighbouring Ghana has also raised its producer price to GH¢3,625 ($289) per 64kg bag, effective October 3, representing a 12.27% increase. “This means every cocoa farmer will now earn GH¢400 more per bag,” Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson said.
The adjustment – the second under Ghana’s new government – aligns local prices with Ivory Coast and aims to prevent cross-border smuggling.
For both countries, record payouts may ease rural hardship and boost fiscal buffers. But with elections looming in Abidjan and fragile market stability, the gamble will be tested at the ballot box and on the trading floor.
