- Ruto loses key ally who helped stabilise government coalition
- ODM faces internal divisions over Raila’s succession
NAIROBI, KENYA — Kenya’s political future looks uncertain following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, whose burial on Sunday drew thousands of mourners, including President William Ruto and retired leader Uhuru Kenyatta.
Raila, a towering figure in Kenyan politics for more than four decades, was buried in his rural home in Siaya County, Nyanza region, at a state funeral that united rivals in mourning – but also exposed new political fractures.
Ruto’s most immediate challenge is how to navigate the post-Raila era without the veteran opposition leader’s support. The two men had formed an unlikely alliance last year after Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) joined Ruto’s government following a wave of Gen Z-led anti-tax protests that shook the country.
Raila’s backing had helped Ruto consolidate power after the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, creating a political vacuum in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region. But analysts warn that without Raila, Ruto’s fragile coalition risks unravelling ahead of the 2027 general election.
“Ruto is probably the most affected by Raila’s sudden death,” political analyst Dismus Mokua told Allen Dreyfus. “He greatly placed his cards on Raila’s support, especially in 2027. He hoped to inherit Raila’s support base in Kenya’s Coast, Western and Nyanza regions to replace Mt Kenya, which has seemingly left him with Gachagua. Without Raila, this will be a great headache.”
ODM’s internal battle and succession fight
Raila’s death has also thrown his ODM party – long the backbone of opposition politics – into turmoil. Rival factions are already jostling for control, with one side backing Ruto’s administration and another opposing it.
The pro-Ruto bloc is led by Junet Mohamed, MP for Suna East, and Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother and Siaya Senator. The anti-Ruto camp, meanwhile, is spearheaded by Edwin Sifuna, Nairobi Senator and ODM Secretary-General, alongside MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East) and Caleb Amisi (Saboti).
On 16 October, Oburu was appointed acting ODM leader – a move expected to deepen divisions within the party and alter national political dynamics. “With a divided ODM, Ruto’s political capital faces great uncertainty,” Mokua added.
Leadership vacuum in the Luo heartland
Raila’s death has also left the Luo community, his political base, without a clear successor. For decades, he served as the undisputed ‘kingpin’ of the region, rallying millions under his reformist banner.
“Raila left without grooming and leaving a substantive Luo political spokesperson. This further complicates his political succession matrix,” said Kiprotich Mutai, a Nairobi-based political analyst. “This, too, directly affects Ruto. If the community disintegrates, it will hurt his numbers in 2027 and reduce his re-election chances.”
Several leaders are being floated as potential heirs – among them Oburu Oginga, Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi, Finance Minister John Mbadi, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and MP Babu Owino. But none commands Raila’s national stature or cross-ethnic appeal.
For Ruto, the loss of a political partner who helped stabilise his administration could weaken his reform agenda and embolden rivals seeking to capitalise on the vacuum. With the next election barely two years away, Kenya faces a period of political recalibration — one without the man who defined its democratic battles for generations.
