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Can Ethiopia’s maritime push redraw the Horn’s trade map?

Canoe at sail painted in Ethiopian colours. Photo by Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye @ Unsplash
Canoe at sail painted in Ethiopian colours. Photo by Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye @ Unsplash
  • Ethiopia renews campaign for seaport access after three decades landlocked
  • Analysts warn success could reshape trade, politics, and security in East Africa

 

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA – Ethiopia is pressing ahead with its decades-long quest for maritime access, seeking to transform a centuries-old grievance into an economic and strategic breakthrough that could alter trade routes.

The move could also have an impact on political alignments across the Horn of Africa.

Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has argued that geography should not determine its political or economic destiny. Two years ago, the government formally requested access to neighbouring seaports – a proposal that initially drew scepticism but is now gaining cautious acceptance among regional players.

The question is no longer symbolic: Can Africa’s second-most populous country reclaim a seaport and, in doing so, tilt the regional balance of power, strengthen trade corridors and accelerate industrial growth?

A historic grievance

Ethiopia once commanded strategic ports along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, including Zeila, Berbera and Assab. Until the late 1980s, the ports of Massawa and Assab fuelled Ethiopia’s import-export trade, anchoring its manufacturing and commercial base.

“The loss of Ethiopia’s ports was shaped not only by foreign intervention from Europe and Egypt during the colonial period, but also by weak political decisions following the Ethio-Eritrea war between 1988 and 2000,” said Habtamu Girma, a PhD fellow at the University of Ibadan. “That ultimately cost Ethiopia the port of Assab for good.”

Habtamu added that Ethiopia’s historic access to Zeila and Berbera once extended its influence into the Indian Ocean. Losing those gateways, he said, amounted to a severe geopolitical setback. “Over 95% of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti, exposing the economy to freight cost volatility, infrastructure bottlenecks and regional disruptions,” he told Allen Dreyfus.

Ethiopia’s new maritime drive is rooted in diplomacy rather than unilateral claims. Officials are seeking support from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union and international partners including Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, both of which have growing interests in Red Sea and Horn of Africa waterways.

“There must be a long-term plan for access to ports that includes close collaboration with IGAD, the African Union and international players,” Habtamu said.

Other landlocked African countries, such as Botswana and Rwanda, have reduced dependence on single corridors through infrastructure pacts and regional trade agreements.

Ethiopia is considering similar steps: negotiating access to several ports, improving railway and road connectivity, automating customs systems and building inland dry ports to ease congestion.

Remaining landlocked has cost Ethiopia dearly.

“Securing port access is a matter of economic survival, not just national pride,” said Eyasu Hailemichael, a lecturer in political science and international relations at New Generation University.

“The pursuit of maritime corridors is inseparable from broader industrial ambitions, including textiles, horticulture and manufacturing.”

The third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries, held in August in Awaza, Turkmenistan, gave Ethiopia a platform to push its case. “Countries should not be prisoners of geography,” said Dr. Fatih Mahdi, deputy chairman of parliament’s foreign relations committee.

He welcomed the Awaza Declaration, which urged landlocked states to leverage technology, boost production and cut transport costs to strengthen trade independence.

Regional implications

Analysts say access to a seaport would reshape Ethiopia’s economic and political standing. “If Ethiopia regains or gains access to a seaport, it may stake a hegemonic position in the region, optimising its economic influence and shaping security ties with neighbouring states,” Habtamu said.

Reliable maritime access could give Addis Ababa bargaining power in regional trade talks, deepen interdependence with host countries and attract new foreign investment. But it could also spark fresh strategic rivalries as coastal states seek to guard their interests.

For Ethiopian businesses, the prize is clear: lower freight rates, more diverse trade routes and faster industrial growth. For policymakers, it represents a chance to rewrite the nation’s economic trajectory – and reassert Ethiopia as a dominant player in East Africa.

“Geography should never dictate a nation’s destiny,” Eyasu said. “With the right alliances and strategic vision, Ethiopia can transform its historic grievance into a look-to-the-future economic and political pivot.”

As talks advance and infrastructure plans take shape, Ethiopia’s maritime gamble is likely to remain one of the Horn’s most closely watched developments – with implications stretching from regional security to global commodities flows.

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