- Raila Odinga’s elder brother appointed acting ODM leader
- Party split over age, factions and 2027 political strategy
NAIROBI, KENYA – Kenya’s ODM party faces a major test after appointing Dr Oburu Oginga as acting leader, prompting questions over whether he can sustain Raila Odinga’s legacy.
Oburu, 82, a long-serving politician and current Siaya County Senator, was named acting leader on 16 October by the ODM National Executive Committee (NEC), just a day after Raila’s death. Party insiders told Allen Dreyfus the swift move was meant to prevent a leadership vacuum in the party Raila founded in 2005.
Yet ODM now confronts a difficult transition, with analysts warning that Oburu must navigate age concerns, factional rivalries and high-stakes electoral timelines if he is to preserve party cohesion.
A party at a crossroads
Some members view Oburu as a stabilising figure capable of guiding ODM through its mourning period. But others argue that the party needs a younger leader to restore energy after nearly two decades under Raila’s command.
“Oburu will be a good unifying factor, but the party needs a young person as its leader,” an ODM legislator said, requesting anonymity.
Political analyst Prof Peter Kagwanja argues that Oburu’s age and the presence of internal camps could complicate his leadership.
“For the few days he has been at the apex of ODM’s leadership, Oburu has really tried to be a unifying figure. However, the party needs young blood to be more vibrant after Raila’s exit,” Kagwanja told Allen Dreyfus.
Oburu’s first major challenge arrives on 27 November, when ODM competes in three parliamentary by-elections — in Unguja, Magarini and Kasipul. Winning all three, party strategists say, is essential to demonstrate stability and continuity after Raila’s passing.
But Oburu has also ignited political tensions after declaring that ODM will only support President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid if the party secures the running-mate slot. The statement drew immediate backlash from Mt Kenya East leaders, home to Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.
“We want to tell our president that Mt Kenya East is fully behind him, but our support stands because of Kindiki. The ODM brigade should forget about this seat because it is not vacant,” warned Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiri.
Beyond electoral battles, analysts point to ODM’s deeper structural problem: its three rival camps — those backing Ruto, those opposing him, and those staying neutral.
“Raila had managed to keep the party intact, taming the different camps. Filling Raila’s political void will be quite a difficult task for Oburu. He may need additional political back-up to keep the party intact before and after 2027,” Kagwanja said.
As ODM enters a post-Raila era for the first time in its history, the question now is whether Oburu Oginga can hold together a party shaped for nearly two decades by his brother’s towering political influence – or whether Kenya is witnessing the beginning of a generational realignment that could redefine the 2027 race.
