- Incumbent Biya vies for an eighth term amid opposition fractures
- Voters weigh security, youth jobs, democracy reform in pivotal vote
YAOUNDÉ, CAMEROON – On Sunday, October 12, Cameroonians go to the polls in what could become a litmus test for the endurance of one of Africa’s longest-running governments.
The 2025 presidential election pits 12 candidates – though none match the name recognition or political weight of Paul Biya, the 92-year-old incumbent who has ruled since 1982.
With the exclusion of his most formidable 2018 rival, Maurice Kamto, and a fractured opposition, the dynamics of this election transcend personalities. They touch on governance, legitimacy, security, the youth dividend – and the country’s very future of political contest.
Key players under the spotlight
Paul Biya (RDPC)
The presumed frontrunner, Biya is seeking an unprecedented eighth term. His campaign pledges emphasise continuity: tackling youth unemployment, improving security, and combating corruption.
But critics point to concerns about his health, long spells abroad, and the concentration of power in his inner circle.
Akere Muna
A 73-year-old barrister and technocrat, Muna carries the reputation of “Mr Clean” in Cameroon’s political discourse. He heads the Univers party and seeks to campaign on anti-corruption and a peaceful resolution to the Anglophone crisis.
Cabral Libii (PCRN)
At 45 years old, Libii is one of the younger contenders. A former journalist, he emphasises institutional reform and transparency as his core assets.
Joshua Osih (SDF)
A 56-year-old Anglophone leader, Osih’s platform leans heavily on reconciliation and addressing the violence in Cameroon’s Northwest and Southwest regions.
Hermine Patricia Toimaino Ndam Njoya
As only the third woman ever to run in a Cameroonian presidential vote, 56-year-old Njoya campaigns under the Democratic Union of Cameroon banner. Her slogan centres on inclusive representation and local participation.
Bello Bouba Maigari (UNDP)
From the volatile Far North region, 78-year-old Bouba Maigari once served under Biya’s government. His entry in this race adds weight to regional and security concerns, especially in border-area zones threatened by Boko Haram violence.
Issa Tchiroma Bakary (FSNC)
At 76, Tchiroma is a veteran of government posts, including ministerial roles. He resigned in mid-2025 to contest, branding himself a break from the status quo and pledging social cohesion and revitalisation.
How the electoral system works
Cameroon uses a single-round, first-past-the-post system – the candidate with the most votes wins, no run-off. In 2008, parliament amended the constitution to eliminate presidential term limits, opening the way for Biya’s extended rule.
The election is overseen by ELECAM (Elections Cameroon), established in 2006. Though intended to be independent, the commission faces frequent accusations of bias toward the ruling party, given the presidential appointment of many of its members.
A flashpoint in the run-up has been the disqualification of Maurice Kamto. ELECAM rejected his candidacy on the grounds of “plurality of nominations,” citing that a splinter group in his alliance had also registered a candidate. Kamto’s appeal to the Constitutional Council was dismissed, reinforcing the perception that opposition influence is being constrained.
More than 8 million Cameroonians are eligible to vote in this election.
Election issues that could tip the balance
Economic frustrations & youth disenchantment
Cameroon is forecast to grow around 3.5 to 3.9 percent in 2025, thanks in part to higher cocoa prices and improved electricity access. But many analysts argue that corruption, mismanagement and clientelism blunt that potential growth.
Public grievances over food and fuel inflation are acute. Elevated transport costs and disrupted supply chains from conflict zones add strain on households. Over 23 percent of Cameroonians live in extreme poverty and poverty reduction has largely stagnated over two decades.
While official unemployment is low (3.8 percent per World Bank data), many youths say they cannot find formal work; in urban centres, youth unemployment exceeds 30 percent in practice.
Security and regional instability
In the Far North, Boko Haram attacks continue to disrupt life, displacing communities and undermining agriculture. In anglophone Southwest and Northwest regions, a secessionist crisis has raged since 2016, displacing over a million people and triggering humanitarian distress. Schools in those conflict zones register lower test scores, absenteeism and infrastructure damage – a stark reminder of the war’s impact on human capital.
Turnout is expected to differ sharply by region. In 2018, voting exceeded 50 percent in Francophone areas but plunged below 16 percent in anglophone regions, largely because of separatist threats. Security disruptions on polling day could further suppress participation, particularly in conflict zones.
Democratic legitimacy and institutional reform
Biya’s decades in power, the concentration of control over the judiciary, and ELECAM’s credibility deficits all stir doubts about the fairness of elections. Some civil society observers caution that technical fixes – like biometric registration – are insufficient to address structural distortions.
Opposition fragmentation is another liability. With Kamto sidelined, no clear consensus or coalition has formed. Bouba, Tchiroma, Osih, Muna and others are each carving niche appeals, but many challenge the idea that any single contender can match Biya’s entrenched machinery.
For international observers and investors, the key concern is stability – whether the election is accepted or triggers protest. Reuters notes that Cameroon faces a $1.6 billion financing gap, bond maturities and mounting debt risks.
What to watch and possible outcomes
Turnout patterns by region: A notably low participation in anglophone or conflict zones could weaken the mandate of the winner.
Vote margins and regional breakdowns: With no run-off, a narrow plurality in sensitive regions might spark claims of fraud.
Opposition reaction: If opposition candidates dispute results or mobilise protests, tensions could flare.
International response: The EU, AU and other observers may scrutinise results for legitimacy.
Post-election succession: Given Biya’s age and health, questions about power transition could dominate the aftermath.
A Biya victory seems like the most likely scenario – but whether it is deemed credible, inclusive or stable is far less certain. For Cameroon and its young electorate, the outcome may set the tone for whether change is a distant promise or a living possibility.
