We’re continuing the new season with a re-upload of our conversation with Mark Bohlund — Senior Credit Research Analyst at REDD Intelligence and former Bloomberg Africa economist. Mark brings decades of experience decoding the link between sovereign credit ratings, debt markets, and African economies.
In this episode, we unpack the power and problems of the “big three” credit rating agencies — Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch — whose decisions shape the cost of capital for African governments. A single downgrade can mean hundreds of millions more in annual repayments. But are these ratings always fair? Or are they based on flawed models and outsider assumptions?
Mark walks us through how ratings really work, the data and metrics that matter, and why some of the most contested downgrades in 2023 — from Nigeria to Kenya — triggered so much pushback. We get into market psychology, fiscal red flags, and how the agencies define default — and why those definitions aren’t always consistent.
We also explore the push to establish a pan-African credit rating agency. Backed by the African Union, the project aims to challenge the dominance of the “big three” by building a new institution grounded in local expertise, contextual analysis, and transparent decision-making.
There are challenges — from funding and data quality to winning investor trust. But if it succeeds, it could help reshape Africa’s financial sovereignty and offer a fresh approach to assessing risk — one that reflects the continent’s complexity, not just its credit history.
